End of corona? Really!

End of corona? Really!

I had decided to take a day off work and was just indoors on this Friday, yesterday.  To say that I was doing nothing on this rest day would be an understatement.  I was calculating voltage drops and lengths of electrical cables for a project that is now occupying my time, which should make me a titled man someday, but more on that anecdote later.

The quietness of the house was unmistakable on this Friday.  You could hear a pin drop.  I would occasionally make out some sounds like the house girls around the block doing a jig or two outside the corridor of this first floor apartment.  That laughter and a collection of muffled sounds would soon end and the eerie silence would be back.

The sounds of the engines of motorbikes that would otherwise disturb the peace of the day were unmistakably missing.  I had earlier in the morning passed by the supermarket that is just on my doorstep and had heard an inkling of why this was so.

“Kim anapishana na makarau,” a lady attendant was telling one of the gents who does packing of items in that mart.

“Kwani?,” the guy had gestured, looking in her direction, and momentarily looking through the entrance.

“Wanataka kachukua nduthi yake, na ana waambia haana!,” she updated him, loudly, for the benefit.

“Uongo!”

“Si unajua Kim ameficha nduthi, ndio ana waambia haana!”

This story hit home immediately.  You must be a non-Kenyan resident or citizen to fail to know that motorbikes have had a bad week.  It started by a video clip that made rounds online four days after the fact.  The video shows a short fifteen second clip of some lady screaming while strapped on a car seat, while a mob is tearing into her car, keys and self.  It was ugly!

An explanation note on the Twitter message that accompanied the video indicated that motorbike mobs were molesting the lady for having knocked one of their own, and attempting to flee the scene at Forest road in Nairobi.  The video had caused a national outcry, especially that it was emerging on International Women’s Day, and going against the very grain of the celebrations of the spirit of equality and dignity.  Even the president of the republic made reference to that video during his address on the IWD day… and that is when trouble started for the motorbike people.

A national swoop was initiated and the mob of motorbike operators were reminded to comply with rules that they had largely ignored in every attempt to enforce them in the past.  The rules include asking them to be registered in savings and credit cooperatives (SACCO), having reflector jackets with the group’s name and generally being on self-regulation.  These were best practice rules, but they had since caused a strike by the motorbike operators, a blockage of Thika road by the same mob… and had even caused this crackdown on all motorbikes that were non-compliant.

Now I knew why the motorbike noises were missing from the air.  The environment was so cool for my ‘vee equals ai ar’ calculations… until three, when another stir of excitement disturbed the quiet afternoon.  I could hear the block-folks talk animatedly from somewhere outside the house, possibly on the verandah or the wide parking yard downstairs.

“Imagine hakuna cha mask tena!  Ayi, nilikuwa nimechoka!,” some loudmouth said.  I was two closed doors away, but the statement did permeate.

“Aki Gresi usinikumbushe!  Hakuna cha masks tena!  Gava ime abolish hiyo mambo Gresi!”

“Joan, Hata sijui nifanyaje ku-celebrate!”

Wait the hech a minute!  What is this excitement all about?  No more masking, did they say?

Only one way to find out.  A few clicks on the keyboard and it turned out to be true that the Government of Kenya had (finally) officially revoked the requirement for putting on masks at public places.  People were now free to operate without masks at all public places without fear (or favour) of being arrested.

But wait again, for another minute!  Hadn’t they made this very announcement already? No, they hadn’t.  The last excitement was the abolition of the ten to four curfew in October 2021, but that same abolition did away with masking, didn’t it?  I am sure it did, since from that day corona ended and masking became optional, largely ignored and was more of the exception than the norm.

So, the announcement that it had finally been dropped did not even make a difference nor sense.  This is something that had already been dropped five months ago.  It was just being formalized now.  And is corona even a thing anymore?  465,132,541 infections and 6,060,378 deaths* later and this pandemic has generally turned into an epidemic that we just have to live with.  Kenya has decided to make this live-with-it decision when the numbers are 323171 and 5644 respectively.  Thank the vaccines for that, or what else can we attribute this to?

*source: worldometers

It could be that our focus has moved on to other things.  Maybe it was even the Ukraine war that started ten days ago that made corona lose its glory.  The war that start when Russia promised not to invade, but still did.  This bluff caught the world unawares.  I was one of the people who took the view that invading Ukraine made no sense and hence it could not be possible.  I woke up ten days ago and the pictures on AJZ were clear, as Russian tanks started infiltrating the Ukrainian borders from the south, east and north – the very places where Russia had been conducting military drills, which was now being turned into a practical.

This event put corona on the ‘can wait’ tray, as the world was caught off guard with an impossible situation.  The only thing that was on the table was imposition of sanctions since directly attacking Russia had not been contemplated.  However, just like invading Ukraine did not make sense, something else that does not make sense at the moment can just happen and it becomes – what shall be shall be.

So, as we celebrate the end of corona, forced by other issues that are taking centre stage, let us try to make sense of everything that is happening, if this is even possible.  While at it, make sense of this one – I participated in a democratic election today, where we had to pick one of two candidates… and the votes were 101 against 100.  How democratic can that be?  If you think that is democratic, then you have not heard about the other one that I participated in earlier in the week.  That one had someone with 250 votes being dropped in favour of another with 200 votes – so as to comply with a regional balancing clause.  How is that even possible?  I told you – things no longer make sense.  Live with it!

WWB, the Coach, Nairobi, Kenya, March 12, 2022

COVID is out, or did I not get the message?

COVID is out, or did I not get the message?

It was inevitable that Kenya would have to unlock the locked down zone of Nairobi, Kajiado, Kiambu, Machakos and Nakuru, and open it up to the rest of the country.  This zone had been on an 8pm to 4am curfew.  This locked us out of the rest of Kenya, who were still having a more favourable time, including shorter curfew times and continued use of their congregational places.  

I knew that this lockdown would have to ease somehow, since the Ministry of Education had already insisted that schools would have to reopen on May 10.  There was no way that students would get to school unless the lockdown was eased, otherwise, how would the travel cross country, when they cannot cross the country?  I however had not imagined that the easing of restrictions would be occurring today.

But was this easing even possible?  Should we even be easing restrictions including the lockdown?  I even believe that the lockdown should instead even be extended to the rest of the country and restrictions made even more stringent!  I believe this because things have gone worse in the world, as far as COVID is concerned.  

Sample this – on that March 26 date of the lockdown, the global infections were 126,256,838 with 2,770,139 deaths.  Kenya numbers were 126,170 and 2,092 respectively.  Though the positivity rate from samples collected in Kenya had gone down from a high of over 30% to the current rate of about 15%, that had not been the case elsewhere in the world.

The current total infections* of COVID19 globally stand at 152,550,779, with 3,200,571 deaths, while Kenyan numbers are 160,053 and 2,744 respectively.  I was not seeing how easing of restrictions was going to be possible based on these figures.  But that is not even it.  A situation had just arisen in India, where confirmed infections were numbering** almost 0.4M daily, while the death toll was about 3,500 daily in the last two days!  Imagine!  3,500 human beings dying each and every day!  

I had seen on AJZ news channel of the untold devastation in India.  The country that is famed for being the leader in vaccine production, and amongst the top COVID19 vaccine producers was buckling under the weight of the same COVID.  Almost half of those dying of COVID19 in the world were dying in India.  This was the worst situation that corona would bring to humanity.  Can it or will is even get worse here or somewhere in the globe?  How worse can it get?  How will that ‘worse’ look like!!

* https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

** https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/india/

How was life going to be better at all, when the situation was getting worse with each and every passing day anyway?  I had pondering over this since the morning.

“Mwanzako akinyolewa, tia kichwa chako maji+,” is the saying that came to mind even as I started my activities for this Saturday, May 1, 2021, with those bad corona numbers in mind.  (+When your colleagues is about to be shaved, be ready for being shaved next)

It was yet another May 1 date, but there was no Labour Day for a second year in a row, at least not the pomp and festivities that come with it.  The congregation of workers at commemoration venues was not going to be possible again this year, especially in our disease-infected zone, where congregations had already been banned anyway.  

I did not make much of the day, until I watched the evening news of the day.  And a surprise was awaiting!  The country had eased the restrictions!  The lockdown was been lifted and free movement within the country would now be possible, starting tomorrow May 2.  Our curfew hours would be revised to be at par with the rest of the country, being from ten at night to four in the morning.  

The revision meant that eateries that were previously on a take-away basis only would now allow sit-ins.  Bars that had been shut completely, would now open albeit to seven in the evening; talking of which, who even drinks while it is still daylight!  Religious gathering that had been prohibited in the zone would be allowed to restart at one-third sitting capacity.  Schools were directed on open on the scheduled date.  This was happening… and it was happening now!

I still do not know what to make of this new development.  I am now more fearful of corona than ever before, especially having seen how it ‘came from nowhere’ and wiped out India in just one week!  I am now more conscious of how bad corona can be, after watching those doctored videos that showed people falling down and dying in the middle of the streets in India, due to lack to hospital beds or lack of oxygen at both hospitals or homes.  I have given corona new respect after watching it devastate India as it did in just one week.  That is why I am not sure whether we should be easing restrictions or making them tighter!  I appreciate that we have to put food on the table, but who will be eating?

I am however comforted that the head of state assured of a swift return to restrictions if ‘anything unexpected’ came up.  I am also aware that vaccines for second doses and first shot for the additional numbers in the next group of Kenyans is on the way.  These shots should be landing anytime in June.  It is only time that will tell whether I am overly fearful or overly fearing.  For now, let me hit those 10,000 walking steps per day in the name of the marathoners May challenge – a challenge that I would have preferred to skip and hibernate, but what is on is on.  

Happy Labour day!

WWB, the Coach, Nairobi, Kenya, May 1, 2021 

Breaking news at 100M or at 5.01M?

Breaking news at 100M or at 5.01M?

It was breaking news!  

The regularly scheduled news items had to be stopped on live stream.  This could not just wait.

“We interrupt ongoing news stories to report that Corona infections have hit 100 million, repeat, Breaking news, Corona infections have hit 100-million infections worldwide.”

White text on a red ticker below the TV screen left no doubt about this news item.

For AJZ to have interrupted their evening news midstream!  This was quite something.  I would soon be online checking my news sources* to see if this was a real deal.  But my discovery was even different.  The numbers were more of 101M, not even that 100M.  100,639,974 to be exact, with 2,161,074 deaths and 72,587,082 recovered?  Even Kenya had something 100 in the numbers - 100,193 infections, 1,750 fatalities and 83,625 recoveries.

But why was it a big deal?  The number of infections were expected to rise and at some point it would reach 100M anyway.  In fact, you do not need to break any news when at some point the numbers shall reach 110M, and then 150M and so on.  If we are to break news every time we hit double zeros, then breaking news shall lose meaning.  I am generally a numbers person, and I can tell you that numbers can be mispresented to cause misinterpretation.  It is for that reason that I would offer free advice to anyone that ‘Numbers should always be taken in context’.  

This is how to contextualize the numbers… I would look at the numbers with a view of seeing some trends, and finding out if there are noteworthy changes in trend over time… something that points to a new context that was not known before.  In my case, the trend that I would look out for would be the ‘fatality rate’.  

And... my findings are that this rate has remained about 2% since 2020.  It is still 2% even now in this breaking news time.  Now, seriously speaking, and based on this measure, has anything changed for the worse?  Unfortunately, not.  What happened last year is still happening now – there is nothing different today, even as the news breaks.

Talking about differences, was there anything to break news when I did my long run today in the evening?  No.  I started the run at 4.00pm, through the usual route past Kabete Poly, crossed Waiyaki way, then ran to Ndumbo.  From Ndumbo I ran down Kapenguria road to Lower Kabete road then diverted to the left to run through Mary Leakey route and across the Uni farm.  The route was the same old.  Nothing was different.  It was similar to what I ran last year, or even last week.

When I emerged at ‘the tank’ from the University farm route, I turned right to join Kanyariri road and ran all the way past Kanyariri market, where I did a U-turn and ran back straight all the way to Ndumbo market.  I kept running and would soon join Waiyaki way and kept running along it.  Ten minutes later and I would be crossing Waiyaki way back to Kabete Poly ready to finish the run.  I would eventually finish the run around 6.10pm.  

The route remained the same old – nothing new.  An average of 5.01min per km was however record breaking in 2021 – even if I was to look at the trends.  Had it been 5.20min per km, then it would have been same old.  And back to that AJZ story… their numbers were from a different source**, which I still checked and confirmed.  Meaning, take numbers with a pinch of salt – numbers do not lie, they just tell different stories.  

Finally, we already have corona vaccines in commercial use in different countries in the world - US, UK, Germany, France, Israel, Canada, India, China, Russia, Brazil and the list goes on and on.  Even the new variant of corona, be it South African variant or UK variant are responding well to the existing vaccines already in US.  It is now just a matter of time.  Soon corona shall be vanquished.  So the numbers may not reach 200M and the trend may not remain in the 2% fatality... who knows, everything is possible.

* worldometers

** jhu

WWB, the coach, Nairobi, Kenya, Jan. 26, 2021